China is facing a wave after three years

Due to zero covid policy

We faced

First wave due to ignorance about the virus

Second wave due to virulence of the virus

Third wave with the confidence of virus(vaccine virus)

China lacked all three waves

So they will be facing three waves in quick succession of three months

So what are all we faced in the span of three years

They will face in three months

We faced first wave with virulent alpha wave

Second wave with more virulent delta wave

Third wave with less virulent omicron wave

China with its stringent zero covid policy and authoritarian rule has sustained three long years of series of lockdowns

But couldn't withstand lock downs and massive testing due to strain felt over its economy

So lifted zero covid policy altogether suddenly

And embraced policy of "Let it take over"

So now omicron lineages are taking over the 1.4 billion population of China like a blitzkrieg

We all know omicron is highly transmissible but less virulent than previous variants

Omicron and its lineages are ruling the world for almost one year now( most by a variant since inception of this pandemic)

Eventhough case fatality rate is low when compared to alpha/ beta and delta

It's rampant transmission rate and immune evading capacity makes it Spread very faster

Initial R- naught value estimation at China being 16 , it will cause huge surge in number of cases ( China stopped state sponsored testing so won't be showing actual numbers here after)

Surge in cases and no action on containment means when the virus meets vulnerable population It will cause moderate to severe disease. So deaths among vulnerable can't be prevented

Again vaccine induced immunity that too with inactivated vaccines ( sinovac and sinopharm) will wean after 6 months maximum

So predominant % of Chinese population are Lacking vaccine borne immunity as well as infection borne immunity

So they will be facing omicron without sophistications of vaccine borne + infection borne immunity ( hybrid immunity ).

In contrast, India came out of zero covid policy by late 2021 after first wave And took policy of "Survive amidst pandemic" policy By which we learnt to survive along with virus

Vaccines where introduced by January 2021, initial vaccine acceptance was too low due to resistance seeded by myths and unscientific/ pseudo scientific propaganda

Then came the disastrous second wave with delta during mid 2021 , by seeing the rampage done by delta

Vaccine coverage picked up swiftly.

By the end of 2021 , 90% ofIndian population was vaccinated with covishield ( thanks to Oxford University, astra zeneca and serum institute india) 10% with covaxin ( thanks to ICMR And Bharat Biotech India)

We faced third wave with omicron between December 2021 to March 2022 Even though cases rised sky high, case fatality was kept very minimum

We should remember that schools and colleges were kept closed for minimal periods during peak .

During omicron wave, India has given precautionary third dose to most of its population And made hybrid immunity even stronger

So now after March 2022 for the past 10 months we are living happily without worrying about next wave of infections and hospitalizations.

China as expected will have to undergo all the three waves we undergone in next 90 days time

And they may see higher death rates than our experiences with omicron As they don't have natural or vaccine borne immunity

So finally We need not fear about situations in China

We are comparatively in safer side as of now But we should be always alert in detecting notorious new variants And may be in need of annual variant specific boosters atleast for immuno compromised and elderly to avoid severe infections and deaths

Nothing wrong in continuing good practices like

Wearing masks in crowded areas

Isolating ourselves during respiratory illness

Getting annual shots of covid vaccines like western people do with flu shots

Dear Indians v

Don't worry about situations in China

Let's pray for them v

Lets Be happy

Dr.A.B.Farook abdulla

Sivagangai